{"id":2413,"date":"2021-12-13T08:57:37","date_gmt":"2021-12-13T08:57:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.earnnest.me\/web\/?p=2413"},"modified":"2021-12-17T06:32:41","modified_gmt":"2021-12-17T06:32:41","slug":"residential-real-estate-how-to-play-the-upcoming-multi-year-upcycle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.earnnest.me\/web\/residential-real-estate-how-to-play-the-upcoming-multi-year-upcycle\/","title":{"rendered":"Residential real estate: How to play the multi-year upcycle?"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"2413\" class=\"elementor elementor-2413\" data-elementor-settings=\"[]\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-section-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-79aab87 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"79aab87\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-ec773d0\" data-id=\"ec773d0\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2185856 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2185856\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Real estate is a core sector for the Indian economy which\u00a0is expected to reach a market size of US$1 trillion by 2030 and contribute ~13% to the country\u2019s GDP by 2025<sup>(1)<\/sup>. Within real estate,\u00a0the residential segment has the largest contribution of ~80%.<\/p><p><strong>After a prolonged 6-year down cycle, residential has seen a strong, broad-based recovery in the last 12 months, laying the foundation for an upcycle over next several years.<\/strong> Further, COVID-19 has provided a positive nudge to the sector already benefiting from a favorable macro setup.<\/p><p>Source: (1)\u00a0 IBEF, Sep 2021<\/p><p><strong>Strong bounce back in residential sales<\/strong><\/p><p>Housing sale across tier 1 cities witnessed a sharp rebound in Q3 2021 \u2013 up 59% YoY. It also promptly recovered from second lockdown related disruptions in Q1 2021 \u2013 up ~250% QoQ.<\/p><p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-2501 aligncenter\" src=\"\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/1-300x97.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"612\" height=\"198\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.earnnest.me\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/1-300x97.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.earnnest.me\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/1-768x247.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.earnnest.me\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/1.jpg 898w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px\" \/><\/p><p>Source: Proptiger real insights, Economic Times<\/p><p><strong>Listed players (proxy for performing developers) continue to do exceptionally well<\/strong><\/p><p>Performing, credible developers continue to gain market share as home buyers increasingly seek quality and assurance of timely delivery.<\/p><ul><li>Listed developers more than doubled (2.2x) their sales over the last 4 years \u2013 growth of 21% p.a. despite a slow market during these years<\/li><li>Q3 2021 sales were 70%+ higher than the same quarter last year<\/li><\/ul><p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-2502 aligncenter\" src=\"\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/2-300x81.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"614\" height=\"166\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.earnnest.me\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/2-300x81.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.earnnest.me\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/2-768x206.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.earnnest.me\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/2.jpg 871w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 614px) 100vw, 614px\" \/><\/p><ul><li>Realizations have been increasing steadily \u2013 Q3 2021 realization was ~14% higher than same quarter last year and 6% higher than avg. realization in FY21<\/li><\/ul><p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-2503 aligncenter\" src=\"\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/3-1-300x89.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"614\" height=\"182\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.earnnest.me\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/3-1-300x89.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.earnnest.me\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/3-1.jpg 695w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 614px) 100vw, 614px\" \/><\/p><p>Source: Quarterly Investor Presentations<\/p><p><strong>What is driving this stellar performance?<\/strong><\/p><ul><li>Housing affordability is nearly the best it has ever been, driven by:<ul><li>All time low mortgage rates \u2013 400-450 bps reduction in last 5 years<\/li><li>Time correction in residential prices i.e. virtually no growth in capital values vs. income growth of ~8% p.a. and inflation of ~5%<\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-2504 aligncenter\" src=\"\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/4-300x71.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"617\" height=\"146\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.earnnest.me\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/4-300x71.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.earnnest.me\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/4-768x181.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.earnnest.me\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/4.jpg 868w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 617px) 100vw, 617px\" \/><\/p><p>Source: Morgan Stanley Research (India Property, 28 Nov 2021), Jefferies India Property: 2021 Outlook &#8211; A New Cycle Begins (Report dated 10 January 2021)<\/p><ul><li>Rising savings and wealth effect from buoyant capital markets<\/li><li>COVID-19 catalyzing the need for home up-gradation and home ownership<\/li><li>Supportive government policies \u2013 reduction in stamp duty, premium waivers\/discounts, higher tax deductions for affordable homes, etc.<\/li><\/ul><p><strong>What are market experts \/ research houses saying?<\/strong><\/p><p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-2505 aligncenter\" src=\"\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/5-300x194.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"559\" height=\"362\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.earnnest.me\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/5-300x194.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.earnnest.me\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/5-768x497.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.earnnest.me\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/5.jpg 893w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 559px) 100vw, 559px\" \/><\/p><p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-2506 aligncenter\" src=\"\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/6-300x82.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"570\" height=\"156\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.earnnest.me\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/6-300x82.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.earnnest.me\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/6-768x210.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.earnnest.me\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/6.jpg 888w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 570px) 100vw, 570px\" \/><\/p><p><strong>What is the future outlook and how do you play this residential upcycle?<\/strong><\/p><p>With the strong fundamentals in-place for the sector and low starting point of residential sale volume (~35-40% below last cycle peak in 2012-2013), we expect volume and price growth to accelerate over the coming years.<\/p><p>In our view, investments in senior secured credit (project finance) to the sector offer the best risk-reward to play this upcycle.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Real estate is a core sector for the Indian economy which&nbsp;is expected to reach a market size of US$1 trillion by 2030 and contribute ~13% to the country\u2019s GDP by 2025(1). Within real estate,&nbsp;the residential segment has the largest contribution of ~80%. After a prolonged 6-year down cycle, residential has seen a strong, broad-based recovery [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2374,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2413","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-insights"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Residential real estate: How to play the multi-year upcycle? - Earnnest<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earnnest.me\/web\/residential-real-estate-how-to-play-the-upcoming-multi-year-upcycle\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Residential real estate: How to play the multi-year upcycle? - Earnnest\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Real estate is a core sector for the Indian economy which&nbsp;is expected to reach a market size of US$1 trillion by 2030 and contribute ~13% to the country\u2019s GDP by 2025(1). 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